UN Mission to Nepal Comes to a Close

More than five years after the end of the civil war that was responsible for the deaths of more than 13,000 people, the UN peacekeeping mission to the country is leaving. The UN peacekeeping mission was stationed in Nepal to monitor the aftermath of the signing of the 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement which ended the ten year war, abolished the monarchy, allowed the Maoists into government, and disarmed them.

Now the UN mission is leaving, believing that the government and Maoists can successfully finish the peace process. The arms control agreement in place since 2006 has been successful and despite the political deadlock, the UN is confident that the peace agreement and subsequent arms control will hold without the mission’s presence. However, people inside the country are nervous and those outside the country who are interested in keeping the peace should be as well. The new constitution that was supposed to be created and approved in May remains unfinished. Elections have failed to name a new Prime Minister (for the 16th time) and the people are disillusioned. With the oversight of the UN, the estimated 19,000 strong Maoists have been successfully kept from rearming; however, the exit of the UN and the uncertain political situation threaten to unravel this success in the peace process as there is no more third party enforcement. The Maoists will now have more leverage in forcing favorable political outcomes since they can threaten war without having to fear any reprisals. As it is, the Maoists routinely stage strikes and blockages of ground transportation across the country, including in Kathmandu, that often grind the country to a halt. Since the government remains highly centralized in Kathmandu, it would be almost completely unable to marshal its already limited resources to prevent a return to civil conflict. During the ten year war, Maoist rebels primarily staged their attacks from bases in the mountains which were largely untouchable. Ground transportation is practically nonexistent, eliminating the government’s ability to project its power into these outlying regions. In the long term, providing this infrastructure will mitigate the Maoists’ operational advantage but in the immediate aftermath of the UN’s withdrawal, the political situation has to be resolved. Though the Maoists claim that they have no interest in reigniting conflict and for now remain interested in gaining power through legitimate means, a worsening of the political deadlock could compel the Maoists to take control through more violent routes. Without the assistance of some convening authority or a player that would bring on-the-ground organizations together to provide mediation, it is likely that the government will not be able to maintain the tenuous peace the country has enjoyed for the past five years.