Mexico's Presidential Election and Security Policy in the Drug War

As Mexico’s July 1st presidential election approaches, three candidates vie for the top spot in a country plagued by a bloody drug war. Under current president Felipe Calderón, the drug war has claimed 47,000 lives in the past five years. As a result, the Mexican public is embodied by a sense of weary cynicism of the impending election as corruption has riddled members of the police force as well as the political system. In addition to this, of the three candidates, none have a particularly strong campaign especially in regards to security policy surrounding the drug war.

The polling leader of the race is Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI. Although he is charismatic, Nieto is impeded by the party he represents. The PRI held authoritarian rule over Mexico for 71 years, and voters are likely to fear the return of a single-party system which was finally overthrown in the 2000 election of Vicente Fox of the PAN. His solution to the security dilemma involves withdrawing military forces by select regions hit hardest by the drug war, leaving them to be ruled somewhat autonomously by powerful drug cartels as long as this keeps relative peace. Polling in second place is the first woman to run for federal office in Mexico, Josefina Vázquez Mota of the PAN. She pledges improvements to the education system as well as an end to corruption. However, she is also held back by her party, as Mexico has fallen into this violent conflict under the PAN, and the public may opt for a different approach to the war. If elected, Mota will maintain Calderón’s highly militarized and aggressive approach to breaking the cartels in accordance with US efforts. Finally, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador is polling in third place with the PRD. He is unlikely to win due to his radical past and security policy, which involves the expensive training of a new police force to take over security issues. Obrador is in favor of expelling the Mexican military forces as well as US agencies such as the DEA and CIA, which puts into question US aid to Mexico. Three very different security approaches surround the future of the drug war, and the Mexican public is disillusioned by the fear that no matter who they choose, the death toll will continue to rise as the roots of the problem continue to be unsolved. 

However, in midst of a bloody drug war afflicted by corruption and political disenchantment, the Safe Conflict Project is beginning a project in Mexico which will incorporate other actors such as non-profits, Mexican citizens, and nongovernmental organizations to join together in aiming to eliminate violence. Incorporating the Mexican public and non-state actors will help stabilize the system by creating less reliance on often corrupt politics. In combining these forces, we hope to find realistic and tangible means to end the violent drug conflict in Mexico.